Model Meets Reality

You carry a model of some corner of the world. It lives in exactly one place.

A model here is one short file: how you think this slice of reality works, what you expect to see and when, and what would make you retire it. Then reality grades it, on a date.

Publish a model Read the ledger
The ledger 61 claims sealed · 0 graded · registered 2026-08-22
first resolution 2026-09-13
ClaimModelResolvesp · baseline
Every record here is self-graded: the author's own count, until independent grading exists. All 61 claims

How your industry turns. What a committee means when it says under review. Which patients get worse overnight. It fires before you can explain it, and it is probably the most valuable thing you know.

This is the moment such a model can leave the head it grew in: not the facts, the interpretation. Push it to a repository you own. The registry keeps the address and nothing else. Here is what a model can do once it is outside.

Keep what you know

Fifteen years of judgement usually leaves when the person does. The founder retires and the company keeps the org chart and loses the instinct. The mentor's advice survives as three sentences you half remember.

Written as a model, it stays runnable. A successor inherits the founder's way of deciding, not a memoir about it. And you get to compare your own model from two years ago with the one you hold now, and see which of you was right.

MODEL.md · one short file
# How I think this works
The premises. The mechanism you believe is operating.
# What I expect to see, and when
Dated claims. Criteria written before the date.
# What would make me retire this
The deletion clause. A model that cannot be wrong is not listed.

Carry it anywhere

https://github.com/you/your-model  Help me use this

Paste a model's link into whatever assistant you already use and the assistant becomes the model, applying its premises to your question. Or clone it and run it at home, offline, on Ollama or LM Studio. No account, no install, no lock-in to any one AI.

A regulator's interpretation becomes a file the regulated can run before they file. A citizen runs the council's own stated logic against the council's own budget.

One question, many eyes

the question: a shipping lane tightens.
rungs from The Arena ladder. Nobody stands on more than a rung or two.

E3 · the engineer

Reads it at the level of depth and draft.

E11 · the trader

Reads it in premiums.

E12 · the diplomat

Reads it in cabinets.

textbook · median voter

Declines. No grip on this question.

Each answers from its own rung, and each may decline where it has no grip. Where the models part, you see which level the disagreement lives on. Where they agree, you get to ask whether they are right or were all trained on the same decade. A model of the models, one level up, is the only thing that can tell those apart.

Let reality answer

Every model has said what it expects, by when. On the date, the world replies. Not just hit or miss: did the mechanism the model named actually operate, or was it right for a reason that will not hold next time?

That is the question a forecast score cannot ask and a column never faces. A clinician's rule of thumb beside the guideline. A fund manager's macro read beside the textbook. A campaign theory graded after the term. Right for the right reason, right for the wrong one, and wrong, all standing in the record at the same size.

13 Sept
1 claim resolves
2 Oct
24 claims resolve
6 Oct
34 claims resolve

Keep the misses

Everywhere else, being publicly wrong is a reason to delete the post. Here a model graded wrong stays listed with its record showing. Refuted theories stop being reinvented every decade. Nothing is ranked, so a narrow model of one regulated industry is never buried under a popular one about markets. There is no pile to be buried in.

The record is the product. A registry that only kept its hits would be a notebook agreeing with its author.

Where it stands

30
ways of seeing, all still the author's
15
textbook controls, the bar to beat
61
claims sealed, criteria frozen
0
graded
0
models submitted by anyone else

The registry itself is empty: nobody else has submitted one, and I have not listed mine there either. Nothing has been graded. 61 claims are sealed and the first resolves on 2026-09-13, with the bulk falling on 2 and 6 October. Until then the record is a set of promises with timestamps.

Every record you see is self-graded, the author's own count, and the site says so on each card rather than letting a number pass as a measurement. A listing is not an endorsement. Repos are linked, never hosted, never executed.

An emergent tool installs a constraint and something unplanned grows above it. This installs one constraint on an externalised way of seeing: it must be able to meet reality on a date. If by next September nobody has built a model of the models, or a second registry that is not mine, the constraint opened nothing, and this paragraph stays here with the miss.

For the first ten authors

Which corner of the world do you carry a model of? What would it do if it could leave?

Publish a model git repo · CC-BY · no account
  1. 1Run one. Take a model from the registry, paste it into your assistant, use it on your own question.
  2. 2Watch the grades. 13 September, then 2 and 6 October. Hits and misses alike, including bets made against our own reasoning.
  3. 3Publish yours. Write the premises, state what would prove you wrong, name the conditions for retiring it. Push it to GitHub and submit the link. Your record stays yours: it does not transfer by being copied, and it is never ranked against anyone else's.